Combining with the actual conditions of Venezuela, we apply fuzzy synthetic evaluation models based on analytic hierarchy process to calculate the tipping point that makes the country fragile. Then, we establish a gray forecasting model and predict that the climate change will push the country to more fragile by indirectly affecting food production, water supply, natural disasters and economy in 3 years. Finally, we have reason to believe that the government can effectively mitigate the impact of climate change on the state fragility through some human intervention.