Saudi Journal of Engineering and Technology (SJEAT)
Volume-2 | Issue-09 | 315-323
Original Research Article
Evaluation of the Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability of Jebba Hydropower Reservoir Operation, Nigeria
B.F. Sule, M. Surajudeen
Published : Sept. 30, 2017
Abstract
The operational status of a hydropower dam is described as either
satisfactory or unsatisfactory. The ability of existing and proposed hydropower dams
to operate satisfactorily under wide range of possible future demands and hydrologic
conditions is an important system characteristic that can be assessed by estimating the
reliability (the probability that a system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience
(the ability of a system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and
vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) of the system. The main sources of
the data and other useful information for this research were previous research works,
government documents, bulletins and gazettes from hydropower related ministries,
agencies and organizations. Desktop analysis was carried out to estimate the water
requirement to generate power by various combinations of units at the Jebba
hydroelectric dam. Linear programming was used to obtain the monthly reservoir
releases that maximized annual total energy generation. Both monthly and annual
simulations were carried out using the operation policies from the LP optimization
algorithm and the generated inflow series. Duration of the failure event (d(j)), the
total number of failure events (M) and the deficit volume of the failure event (v(j))
were obtained from the simulation processes and used to evaluate the reliability,
resilience and vulnerability of the Jebba dam. The results obtained showed that the
performance of Jebba hydropower dam when three or more units are in use is
generally poor. The reliability obtained over the period of historical record varied
from 0.024 for six units to 0.994 for one unit in use. Reliability based on the
optimized operation policy was not less than 60% and was as high as77%. The
resilience was 0.292 and vulnerability was 3298.19 Mm3 at 60% reliability. These
results confirm that the operational status of the dam can be improved by adopting
real time reservoir release policies obtained by optimization of the reservoir
operation.