Ulrich R. Deinwallner
Abstract
During a global crisis, like COVID-19, investors are often uncertain how to decide for their portfolios: Should they hedge or even sell? The purpose of this quantitative, comparative study was to investigate how three different hedging models (HM) perform in comparison. The research question was: what HM with exchange traded funds is most profitable for U.S. stock portfolios? In this study, GARCH (1, 1) models, hedging coefficients, simple moving average (SMA), and t-tests were computed. To sell a portfolio seemed the most profitable strategy during a crisis with (rSMA(24) = 4.37% per month), with $5,000 initial investment during 2000-2019. However, if the investor is indecisive, then a hedge strategy could buy the investor time with (rHedged = 1.87% % per month) during market uncertainties. The paper is relevant for investors and portfolio managers who have to decide hedge or sell a portfolio during a crisis, since an analysis of three different HMs in comparison is provided.