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Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance (SJEF)
Volume-2 | Issue-06 | 314-320
Original Research Article
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Balance in Nigeria: Cointegration, Granger Causality and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) Approach
Aderemi Timothy Ayomitunde, Collinz Bamidele Olu`kunle, Emiola Semiu Ajibola, Famakinde Tolulope
Published : Dec. 30, 2018
DOI : 10.36348/sjef
Abstract
One of the catastrophic aftermath effects of the Structural Adjustment Program is the continuous fluctuations in exchange rate in Nigeria. The possible spillover effects of exchange rate fluctuations on trade balance in the country have generated a serious concern among scholars in the recent time. However, mixed results have been observed from the past studies which created a vacuum in the literature in which this study would fill. Consequently, this paper employed Cointegration, Granger Causality and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) approach to address the objective of the study. The findings that originated from this study are as follows; the exchange rate fluctuations have a negative impact on imports in Nigeria, though not statistically significant. Meanwhile, the impact of exchange rate is positive on exports though not significant in Nigeria as well. Also, economic growth and exchange rate have an inverse relationship in the country. In the same vein, exchange rate has a negative impact on trade balance. Similarly, there is a unidirectional causal relationship between imports and exports in one hand, and exchange rate and economic growth on the other hand in Nigeria. This implies that exchange rate fluctuations have not been favourable to balance of trade and economic growth in Nigeria. Moreover, on the basis of the findings above, it is paramount this paper recommends the following; firstly, the policy makers in Nigeria should embark on policy measures that will ensure the stability of the country`s exchange rate. Also, the Nigerian government should put appropriate mechanism that will ensure the competitiveness of the locally made products both in Nigerian and the world markets. The government should have a political will to embark upon aggressive exports promotion of the locally produced goods in the country.
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