Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance (SJEF)
Volume-2 | Issue-06 | 314-320
Original Research Article
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Balance in Nigeria: Cointegration, Granger Causality and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) Approach
Aderemi Timothy Ayomitunde, Collinz Bamidele Olu`kunle, Emiola Semiu Ajibola, Famakinde Tolulope
Published : Dec. 30, 2018
Abstract
One of the catastrophic aftermath effects of the Structural Adjustment Program
is the continuous fluctuations in exchange rate in Nigeria. The possible spillover effects of
exchange rate fluctuations on trade balance in the country have generated a serious
concern among scholars in the recent time. However, mixed results have been observed
from the past studies which created a vacuum in the literature in which this study would
fill. Consequently, this paper employed Cointegration, Granger Causality and Fully
Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) approach to address the objective of the study. The
findings that originated from this study are as follows; the exchange rate fluctuations have
a negative impact on imports in Nigeria, though not statistically significant. Meanwhile,
the impact of exchange rate is positive on exports though not significant in Nigeria as
well. Also, economic growth and exchange rate have an inverse relationship in the
country. In the same vein, exchange rate has a negative impact on trade balance.
Similarly, there is a unidirectional causal relationship between imports and exports in one
hand, and exchange rate and economic growth on the other hand in Nigeria. This implies
that exchange rate fluctuations have not been favourable to balance of trade and economic
growth in Nigeria. Moreover, on the basis of the findings above, it is paramount this paper
recommends the following; firstly, the policy makers in Nigeria should embark on policy
measures that will ensure the stability of the country`s exchange rate. Also, the Nigerian
government should put appropriate mechanism that will ensure the competitiveness of the
locally made products both in Nigerian and the world markets. The government should
have a political will to embark upon aggressive exports promotion of the locally produced
goods in the country.