Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance (SJEF)
Volume-2 | Issue-06 | 282-287
Review Article
The Structural Shift of China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Trend Function
Gaolu Zou
Published : Nov. 30, 2018
Abstract
China’s foreign exchange reserves kept growing quickly for a decade;
however, they have decreased since 2014. The paper aims to test for a break date
probably existing on the trend function of foreign exchange reserve series. Monthly series
covered the period from January 2000 to March 2018. A standard ADF unit root test, an
ERS DF-GLS test along with the modified AIC, and an MZα test along with GLS
detrending were conducted. Structural shift tests were the Perron test (in a mixed IO
Model C and Model A or crash model), and the Zivot-Andrews test (in a mixed IO Model
C and Model A). Empirical analyses show that at least two unit roots exist in the variable,
implying a robust long memory. A break point took place most likely in January 2014.
US exit out of quantitative easing (QE) and federal funds interest rate hikes may be (at
least partially) attributable to the shift.