Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance (SJEF)
Volume-9 | Issue-11 | 457-474
Original Research Article
Tariff Policies and International Trade Flows: Impacts on Developed and Developing Economies
Olawale C. Olawore, Taiwo R. Aik, Oluwatobi J. Banjo, Victor O. Okoh, Tunde O. Olafimihan, Victor O. Okoh, Deborah O. Ogunleye
Published : Nov. 10, 2025
Abstract
This paper continues our earlier work on tariff policies and international trade but introduces new theoretical and empirical concepts into the analysis. This version 2.0 is a continuation of the development in the first paper (covering 2018–2024) and concentrates particularly on the three forces that are changing global trade today: geopolitical fragmentation, the development of climate-driven trade instruments, and the increasing push toward digital sovereignty. Increases in tariffs have detrimental effects on exports and imports, and developing economies are especially impacted, which suffer most due to structural weaknesses that hinder their ability to absorb shocks. More importantly, competitiveness and resilience are no longer dependent on tariffs alone. Climate regulations and digital restrictions are becoming significant impediments to trade and are already beginning to determine which nations and firms remain competitive and can best weather disruptions. Resilience against disruptions can be achieved by strengthening regional trade relationships and investing in robust digital infrastructure, although, as crises are converging and escalating and not occurring in isolation, governments are actively restructuring global supply chains to seek friend-shoring and strategic independence.