Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance (SJEF)
Volume-9 | Issue-12 | 510-521
Original Research Article
Analysis of Interactions between Financial Markets and the Real Economy: The Case of Morocco
Mohammed El-Khodary
Published : Dec. 8, 2025
Abstract
This study analyses the interactions between financial conditions and real activity in Morocco by examining the policy rate, bank credit, real GDP and inflation together. Using annual data covering 1995–2024, a VECM–SVAR framework is employed to capture both long-term relationships and the propagation of macro-financial shocks. The results show that a single cointegration vector links monetary conditions, credit and real activity in a sustainable manner. Bank credit is the main channel of adjustment in the system, while the policy rate appears to be largely exogenous and insensitive to imbalances. In general, monetary shocks have moderate effects, transmitted mainly via credit, while inflationary shocks are more powerful and persistent, leading to a marked tightening of financial conditions. These conclusions highlight the need to strengthen monetary transmission, develop countercyclical macroprudential tools and improve coordination between monetary, fiscal and structural policies in order to support macro-financial stability in Morocco.