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Saudi Journal of Engineering and Technology (SJEAT)
Volume-10 | Issue-11 | 576-582
Original Research Article
Investigation of Pipeline Failure and Corrosion Rate Prediction Using a Reliability Model for Pipeline Integrity and Safety
Olaye Messiah, Akinyemi Akinfaloye, Francis Amadhe
Published : Nov. 12, 2025
DOI : https://doi.org/10.36348/sjet.2025.v10i11.004
Abstract
Every year, the oil and gas sector spends billions of naira on transmission pipeline corrosion costs, which rise as pipeline networks age and deteriorate. As a result, pipeline operators must reconsider their approaches to corrosion prevention. Companies are being forced to create precise maintenance models based on failure frequency because of corrosion problems. Future line safety, lowering the frequency of failures, and cost-effective pipeline operation all depend on statistical techniques for modeling pipeline failures and making appropriate maintenance decisions. The present study predicted both the reliability and corrosion rate of crude oil pipelines by combining Monte Carlo simulation with degradation models. Corrosion was modeled using linear and power-law formulations that incorporated discrete random samples generated from inline inspection data. The degradation models were used to assess the mean time for failure (MTFF). The average corrosion rate (CRav) has a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the largest occurrence projected random number (CRfreq), according to the TML shown against the RMSE of the predicted models. The RMSE for the degradation models ranged from 1.89 % to 17.02 %. This chart shows that the deterioration models correctly predicted the pipeline corrosion rate to be between 83.91% and 98.06%. Also, the Linear Model Law had the lowest recorded value of 1.98% and the most of 16.11%, while the Power Law degradation was the lowest at 1.88% and the most at 17.01%. When compared to the Monte Carlo Simulation value, which is 2.11 at the lowest and 1.01 at the highest, all of the findings fall between 1.89 and 17.02 percent. Consequently, the RMSE of the degradation models varied between 1.89 and 17.02 percent. Additionally, R2 for the Linear Model ranges from 0.925 to 0.990, but it ranges from 0.989 to 0.999 for the Power Model. According to the results, the degradation model has correctly predicted the field corrosion of the pipelines and will be a crucial tool for predicting when the pipelines will break.
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