Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance (SJEF)
Volume-9 | Issue-08 | 348-378
Original Research Article
Evaluating Global Finance Depolarization: Euro's Chance to Overtake US Dollar as Leading Reserve Currency Despite Competition from Chinese Yuan and Emerging Alternatives
Olawale C. Olawore, Taiwo R. Aiki, Oluwatobi J. Banjo, Victor O. Okoh, Tunde O. Olafimihan
Published : Aug. 26, 2025
Abstract
The world financial system is growing more volatile, and it is questionable whether the conventional reserve currencies will remain as strong as ever. This paper examines whether the euro can meaningfully challenge the U.S. dollar's dominance as increasing economic volatility and the appearance of new competitors like the Chinese Yuan raise this question. This study applies a qualitative and descriptive-quantitative study design. The analysis in this paper draws on empirical data from institutions including the IMF and the BIS. To guide the analysis, this paper uses three key theories: hegemonic stability theory, network effects, and institutional trust. While the U.S. dollar is still the main global currency, it's losing ground. Its share used to be above 70%, but now it's decreased to 53.6%. The euro, on the other hand, has maintained a consistent 20% share and has been remarkably stable. The euro gets its strength from the EU's reliable banking policies and a strong legal system. However, internal division stalls its growth as a global heavyweight. Specifically, the lack of a common fiscal policy and constant political disagreements among member states act as a drag on its overall performance. The Yuan is growing, but it still only accounts for about 2% of the world’s reserves. Despite China's massive economy, the currency is held back by 'red tape' and trust issues specifically, strict controls on moving money, government intervention in its value, and a general lack of transparency. This paper concludes that no single currency will take the lead in the future. Rather, the world is moving toward a multipolar reserve system where the dollar, euro, Yuan, and selected digital currencies will coexist.