The three-year course of the Ukrainian war suggests one possibility. Mathematical models can be used to calculate or predict complex and large-scale coalition wars. A mathematical model created in 2022 suggests that the Ukrainian war will be a long-term struggle in the area between the L1 and the L2 line. This model also assumes a high-risk scenario. In the future of 2026, if there is a full-scale war between the US alliance and the Chinese alliance in East Asia, it will be difficult for the US alliance to win. If this model is verified again in 2026, the mathematical model can be used to predict a large-scale coalition war.